Research & Insights

Off-Market M&A Intelligence

Data-forward analysis for independent sponsors, family offices, and search fund operators.

How License Lapse Data Predicts HVAC Business Exits 6 Months Early

Contractor license renewals are one of the most reliable leading indicators of an owner's intent to exit. We analyzed 7,700+ Florida HVAC licenses and found a 73% correlation between license non-renewal and business sale within 12 months.

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The Off-Market M&A Playbook: What Institutional Buyers Know That You Don't

Private equity firms close more than half their deals off-market. They don't get lucky — they run systematic sourcing operations that most independent sponsors can't afford. Here's how public records change that equation.

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Florida's HVAC Market: 2,400 Signals, One Quarter

A data-first look at Q1 2026 HVAC acquisition signals across Florida's 35 top counties. Where are the highest-density opportunities? Which metro areas show the most distress clustering? The numbers tell a clear story.

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